The Hype Index
Subscribe free
Method

How a claim gets scored.

Published so you can argue with the score instead of trusting it.

Five components, twenty points each

Source quality0 to 20
Peer reviewed, preprint, self-published report, vendor material, or press release.
Sample and method0 to 20
Sample size, how subjects were selected, and whether the underlying data is available.
Independence0 to 20
Does the publisher sell the solution its own finding recommends.
Replication0 to 20
Has anyone independently reproduced it with a comparable method.
Drift0 to 20
How far the popular use of the claim sits from what the source actually says.

Component scores are published with every edition. If you think one is wrong, the disagreement is specific, and that is intentional.

The verdicts

Underrated
The evidence is stronger than the attention it gets.
Holds Up
The claim survives contact with its own source.
Half True
Real finding, wrong scope. Correct in part, misapplied in practice.
Overstated
Sound evidence, carried far past what it actually measured.
Unsupported
No source that survives inspection.

Rules we hold ourselves to

Every figure traces to a primary source. Not coverage of a source, the source. Where a report is quoted, the quotation comes from the report.

No number appears without somewhere to check it. If a claim cannot be sourced, it does not run.

Every edition carries a dated call that can be wrong. Calls resolve in public.

Questions

What is the Hype Index?

A score from zero to one hundred applied to a public claim. Higher means more distance between what the evidence supports and how the claim is being used. It is the sum of five components worth twenty points each.

Why score drift separately?

Most fact checking asks whether a study is right. It rarely asks how far a boardroom has carried the finding past what it measured. That gap is where leaders get hurt, so it is scored on its own.

Does a high score mean the claim is false?

No. A claim can rest on solid research and still score high because it is being used far outside its scope. That is the difference between Overstated and Unsupported.

What happens to a call once it resolves?

It is marked held or missed on the record and it stays there. The archive is the point.

Get every verdict

Two editions a week. One scored claim each.

Tuesday and Thursday at 1:00 PM Central. Every call is dated and graded in public, including the ones we get wrong.

Free foreverTuesdays & ThursdaysUnsubscribe anytime