{
 "edition": "95-percent-of-enterprise-ai-pilots-fail",
 "date": "2026-07-21",
 "claim": "95% of enterprise AI pilots fail.",
 "verdict": "Overstated",
 "score": 69,
 "components": [
  {
   "name": "Source quality",
   "score": 13,
   "note": "Rubric 10 to 14: self-published research labeled Preliminary Findings, not peer reviewed, but its method is described in the report."
  },
  {
   "name": "Sample and method",
   "score": 16,
   "note": "Rubric 15 to 17: 52 interviews is a small sample for a claim about enterprise AI generally, the respondents were not randomly selected, and the underlying data was not released."
  },
  {
   "name": "Independence",
   "score": 12,
   "note": "Rubric 10 to 14: the publisher builds infrastructure in the category the report recommends, but the finding concerns enterprise AI broadly rather than its own product."
  },
  {
   "name": "Replication",
   "score": 12,
   "note": "Rubric 10 to 14: not independently reproduced. Supporting commentary exists but comes from parties with a position on the question."
  },
  {
   "name": "Drift",
   "score": 16,
   "note": "Rubric 15 to 17: a failure rate for custom-built tools is applied as an ROI verdict on all enterprise AI, well outside the population measured."
  }
 ],
 "call": "No peer reviewed replication will put enterprise AI ROI failure at 95%. When better studies land, the honest range will fall between 60 and 80 percent. Most of that spread will come from how each study defines the word success.",
 "resolves": "July 2027",
 "resolution_criteria": "Resolves HELD if, by July 21, 2027, no peer reviewed study of enterprise AI ROI reports a failure rate at or above 90%. Resolves MISSED if one or more does. Resolves VOID only if no qualifying study is published, in which case it carries forward one year and is recorded as unresolved rather than quietly dropped.",
 "source": {
  "title": "The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025",
  "publisher": "MIT Project NANDA",
  "date": "July 2025",
  "url": "https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf"
 },
 "scored_by": "Mark Lynd",
 "url": "https://thehypeindex.com/edition/95-percent-of-enterprise-ai-pilots-fail/",
 "method": "https://thehypeindex.com/method/",
 "rubric_version": "v1.0",
 "rubric_effective": "July 26, 2026",
 "corrections": [
  {
   "date": "July 26, 2026",
   "text": "Re-scored against rubric v1.0 when it was published. Source quality 14 to 13, Sample and method 15 to 14, Independence 16 to 12, Replication 15 to 12, Drift 14 to 16. Total moved from 74 to 67. Publication date corrected from July 26 to July 21, the Tuesday it went out. The source line now states that the report PDF is a third-party mirror rather than a publisher-hosted copy."
  },
  {
   "date": "July 26, 2026",
   "text": "Challenge C-004 upheld. Sample and method moved from 14 to 16. Fifty-two interviews is a small sample for a claim about enterprise AI generally, which is the 15 to 17 band, and scoring it as adequate size contradicted this edition's own headline statistic. Total moved from 67 to 69. The verdict is unchanged at Overstated."
  }
 ],
 "words": 643,
 "reading_minutes": 3,
 "published_web": "2026-07-21",
 "emailed": "2026-07-21"
}