{
 "edition": "002",
 "date": "2026-07-28",
 "claim": "Superhero movies are dead.",
 "verdict": "Half True",
 "score": 53,
 "components": [
  {
   "name": "Source quality",
   "score": 12,
   "note": "Rubric 10 to 14: self-published industry data with a disclosed basis. The grosses underneath this claim are good numbers, but there is no study here, only trade-press arithmetic laid on top of a box office tracker."
  },
  {
   "name": "Sample and method",
   "score": 14,
   "note": "Rubric 10 to 14: the film count is complete, but the comparison set is chosen. Measuring against 2019 means measuring against the biggest year any film franchise has ever had, which guarantees a collapse."
  },
  {
   "name": "Independence",
   "score": 6,
   "note": "Rubric 5 to 9: the outlets carrying the claim have an indirect interest in a decline story, offset by the same outlets publishing the counter-evidence and by the grosses coming from neutral trackers."
  },
  {
   "name": "Replication",
   "score": 4,
   "note": "Rubric 0 to 4: the underlying figures reproduce. The Numbers and Box Office Mojo report the 2025 Marvel releases identically, to the dollar. Whatever is wrong with this claim, the box office data is not it."
  },
  {
   "name": "Drift",
   "score": 17,
   "note": "Rubric 15 to 17: a decline at one studio is applied to an entire genre across every studio, and a year in which Marvel released nothing is read as a year in which audiences refused to show up."
  }
 ],
 "call": "At least one comic-book film released between today and January 31, 2027 will gross more than $800 million worldwide.",
 "resolves": "January 2027",
 "resolution_criteria": "Resolves HELD if Box Office Mojo or The Numbers reports any comic-book adaptation released in that window at more than $800,000,000 worldwide by January 31, 2027. Resolves MISSED if no such film reaches that figure. Both trackers are checked, and if they disagree the lower figure is used. Resolves VOID only if both trackers stop publishing worldwide grosses before that date.",
 "source": {
  "title": "Marvel Cinematic Universe franchise box office",
  "publisher": "The Numbers",
  "date": "checked July 26, 2026",
  "url": "https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Marvel-Cinematic-Universe"
 },
 "scored_by": "Mark Lynd",
 "url": "https://thehypeindex.com/edition/002-superhero-movies-are-dead/",
 "method": "https://thehypeindex.com/method/",
 "rubric_version": "v1.0",
 "rubric_effective": "July 26, 2026",
 "corrections": [],
 "words": 834,
 "reading_minutes": 3,
 "published_web": "2026-07-26",
 "emailed": "2026-07-28"
}